With hundreds of civilians killed, entire communities demolished, and, perhaps most frightening, no signs of stopping, Russia’s ruthless and unjustified assault of Ukraine has reached its second month. The incursion has resulted in a mix of predicted (Russian economic suffering) and unforeseen consequences (amazing Ukrainian military response), giving the little basis for confidence in the future.
The Russian army has met heavy resistance across Ukraine from Ukrainian warriors who have valiantly defended their homeland despite all circumstances. As per a senior US defense official, Ukrainian forces have recently attempted to retake the land from the Russians, and they are “ready and willing” to do so.
The military might of Ukraine hasn’t been the lone surprise.
In the grand scheme of things, we believe the invasion itself is very surprising given the magnitude of the event in global history. While Russian President Vladimir Putin has taken military action in the past, few people believed, perhaps a year ago, that he was planning a massive invasion of Ukraine.
It surprised no one in Russia, and it surprised no one in Ukraine. Most analysts, I believe, were equally surprised. And it is worth noting that the Biden administration began warning that this would happen, and it proved out that they were correct.
There are a few other shocks that We believe are equally essential. One seems to be, the poor quality of Russia’s preparations.
To begin with, their military plan appears to be woefully inadequate for the mission at hand. It appears to be have been founded on the assumption that Ukraine would succumb in a short space of time, and that the country would be greeted with bouquets in the public. And all of this was based on a gross misinterpretation of Ukraine and Ukrainian society.
Another aspect of the improper planning, in our opinion, is that the Kremlin did not adequately prepare Russia’s own populace for such an event. “We’re not preparing to attack,” Russian media told their own people fine up until the assault was launched. Russian officials were reported as saying: “Take a look at how enraged the West is over an attack. That’s completely insane. No one is mentioning an invasion.”
As a result, after the invasion began, they had to persuade the general public that it was not an attack. And that means building a disinformation campaign around the concept that this is just a restricted military exercise, that there are Nazis in Kyiv attacking personal liberty people in Russian-occupied eastern Ukraine, and that it’s all part of a massive Western plan to destabilize Russia and bring it under its direct authority. As a result, it’s quite difficult to justify such a lie.
Behind the media, considerable military reform measures have been underway, including a revamping of the military’s decision-making mechanism, which includes allowing local commanders more independence in making decisions. And this has proven to be crucial because, during the first month of the conflict, the Ukrainian military has been able to hold its own against the considerably larger Russian force.
Despite mounting evidence that Russia’s assault on Ukraine has failed, the country will continue to use its air power to devastate towns and kill civilians in an attempt to force Ukraine to submit.
Unfortunately, we believe this is a valid issue. We believe that practically everything is on the line for Putin right now because anything less than triumph will be regarded as a form of failure for him at a point when he is approaching 70 and worries about succession are already surfacing throughout Russia before all these events.